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- W2040295432 abstract "OFFICIAL ATTEMPTS to alter the balance of payments by taking advantage of the interest sensitivity of short-term capital movements have undergone critical examination in the literature. In a recent article H. Peter Gray [4] stressed the permanent increase in net interest payments as the marginal balance of payments cost of raising interest rates to improve the capital account. Subsequently Henry N. Goldstein [3] criticized Gray for misspecifying the capital and current account effects. In this paper a method felt to be more rigorous than that employed by these writers is used to derive the marginal cost measure. Its particular advantage is to illuminate the role played by the forward exchange market in response to a higher domestic interest rate, a matter which Goldstein emphasized. In contrast to the previous studies this paper first demonstrates that knowledge of the actual capital flows and subsequent changes in interest payments is insufficient for an adequate determination of the marginal cost. Secondly, it is shown that increased responsiveness of the actual capital flow to changes in interest rates does not necessarily lower the marginal cost, as the two studies imply. Finally, the marginal cost of higher interest rates is compared with that of forward intervention undertaken for the same purpose, and they are proven identical. Policy-makers must adopt criteria other than marginal balance of payments cost if they wish to use either policy as a balance of payments weapon. Section 2 briefly reviews Gray's analysis and Goldstein's criticisms. It then considers the relevance of the marginal balance of payments cost concept. Section 3 presents a model of the spot and ferward exchange markets, which is used in Section 4 to derive the opposing temporary and steady-state balance of payments effects of higher domestic interest rates. The determination of marginal balance of payments cost easily follows along with a discussion of forward intervention. Section 5 summarizes the results." @default.
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- W2040295432 date "1971-06-01" @default.
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- W2040295432 title "The Marginal Cost of International Short-Term Capital Movements" @default.
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- W2040295432 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/2525683" @default.
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