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• W1030894764 abstract "Over the past decade the annual landings of South Carolina blue crabs have declined by 30% while marsh salinity has steadily increased due to persistent drought conditions. We hypothesized that the link between increasing salinity and declining crab landings was salinity induced changes in crab settlement, predation or disease. To test these alternatives, we conducted a four-year study of blue crabs in the three rivers of the ACE Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR). From 2009 to 2012, salinity increased in each river as annual freshwater discharge decreased. Larval settlement was not related to salinity, postsettlement predation was negatively related to salinity, and Hematodinium sp. infection was positively related to salinity. Crab abundance declined in the high salinity river (Combahee) due to increased disease in juveniles. Crab abundance increased in the low salinity river (S. Edisto) due to reduced predation on juveniles and adults. Crabs were most abundant and had lower predation and lowest disease at intermediate salinities such as those found in the Ashepoo River, where losses of juveniles were offset by increases in adults. To forecast the long-term effects of drought on crab population structure, we created a spatially-explicit, individual-based model (IBM) of the ACE Basin NERR. We linked river discharge data with in-situ water quality estimates to predict the seasonal and annual variation in salinity for each of our rivers. Data from our crab field censuses and experiments were used to parameterize the relationships between salinity and settlement, movement, predation and disease. We then conducted an 80-year simulation using the forecasted river discharge. The model predicts initial decreases in river discharge to have a positive effect on crab population density as more of the marsh reaches optimal intermediate salinity. However, further decreases in river discharge beyond current discharge levels result in declining crab density. These results suggest that any further reduction of freshwater discharge below current average discharge levels could result in increased crab disease and decreased commercial landings. INTRODUCTION The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, comprises one of the most important commercial fisheries in the state of South Carolina but has been declining over the last 15 years. The factors most correlated with this decline are decreasing freshwater discharge and increasing marsh salinity (Childress 2010). Previous studies have found that increases in salinity can decrease larval settlement (Bishop et al. 2007), decrease juvenile growth and survival (Posey et al. 2002), and increase crab disease (Lee and Frischer 2004). In this paper, we summarize a four-year field study that examines the effect of salinity on crab settlement, movement, predation and disease in the ACE Basin NERR (Fig. 1 Parmenter 2012; Parmenter et al. 2012). We then incorporate our findings into an individualbased population model in order to forecast the future of blue crabs in South Carolina based on projected decreases in freshwater discharge. Figure 1. Nine crab sampling stations in each river of the ACE Basin NERR; the Ashepoo (blue), Combahee (red) and S. Edisto (green) rivers. Salinity decreases from station 1 (St Helena Sound) to station 9 (ACE NERR northern boundary line)." @default.
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• W1030894764 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W1030894764 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W1030894764 title "Dying of Thirst: Impact of Reduced Freshwater Inflow on South Carolina Blue Crabs" @default.
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