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- W1111655385 abstract "After any technological disaster, there are questions and considerations about the precursors of the accident and whether or not the accident could have been prevented. This chapter is the second of the two keynote addresses given at a workshop (Washington, DC, July 2003) sponsored by the National Academy of Engineering's (NAE) Accident Precursors Project. The author begins by defining precursors as invaluable signals that action has to be taken, sometimes quickly, to prevent an accident. Based on this definition, the author presents several examples of failures and successes in the monitoring of system performance and an analytical framework for optimizing warning thresholds. The author then briefly discusses the application of this reasoning to the modeling of terrorist threats and the characteristics of effective organizational warning systems. The examples used include the Space Shuttle heat tiles, the Ford-Firestone tires, safety in anesthesia, and airplane maintenance. The author concludes by reminding readers that failure stories do not provide a complete picture; indeed, there are many more precursors and signals observed and acted upon than there are accidents. In addition, managing the trade-off between false positives and false negatives in warning systems is difficult because it involves the quality of the information, as well as costs and values. The author stresses the importance of a healthy quality of communications in any organizational structure in order to maximize risk mitigation." @default.
- W1111655385 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1111655385 date "2004-01-01" @default.
- W1111655385 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1111655385 title "ON SIGNALS, RESPONSE, AND RISK MITIGATION: A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO THE DETECTION AND ANALYSIS OF PRECURSORS. IN: ACCIDENT PRECURSOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT: REDUCING TECHNOLOGICAL RISK THROUGH DILIGENCE" @default.
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