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- W112307730 abstract "The sterile male technique is a biological pest control method in which sterilized members of a target insect species are released into an infested region in order to dilute the native population’s reproductive capacity. Under certain conditions, this can lead to extinction of the target population. Experience with the method, including the critical 1954 Curacao experiments and the recent outbreak of screwworm flies in the Southwestern U.S. after years of successful control, suggest a possible threshhold between success and failure. We present a stochastic model, based on the birth-and-death process, generalizing a deterministic model due to E.F. Knipling. Computations with our model show a sharp threshhold in the number of sterile males needed for success, depending on parameters such as net reproduction rate and environmental capacity, and where success is measured by the criterion mean lifespans to population extinction. The model predicts that adding steriles beyond this threshhold will yield little additional return in reducing the mean time to extinction, while supplying less than the threshhold number will have virtually no effect in terms of this criterion. From a preliminary statistical analysis of data from the Curacao experiments we obtain estimates of population size and net reproduction rate. Using these estimates in our stochastic model yields predictions that are consistent with the Curacao results. Suggestions for future work are offered." @default.
- W112307730 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W112307730 date "1975-01-01" @default.
- W112307730 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W112307730 title "Mathematical Models of the Sterile Male Technique of Insect Control" @default.
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- W112307730 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-80924-8_12" @default.
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