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• W113204564 abstract "Climate change will generally increase the risk of negative consequences to forests and associated biosocial systems. Risk management identifies risks, estimating their probability of occurrence and magnitude of impact. A risk framework provides a means to quantify what is known, identify where uncertainties exist, and help resource managers develop strategies with better knowledge of risks. Case studies were used to illustrate how risk assessment can be used to assess critical resources and functions. For water, the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) was examined across the United States as a means of assessing risk; forests where PET is expected to exceed P (especially in the Southwest) in the future will be most vulnerable. For carbon (C), the transition between being a C sink to being a source was a critical feature of risk assessment; vegetation change from forest to non-forest created the biggest risk for C emissions (loss of C storage). For wildfire in the West, risk assessment focused on frequency, severity, and annual area burned; the latter component of fire regimes is expected to increase greatly in future decades, creating rapid shifts in forest structure and function. For forest species distribution, bioclimatic envelopes were used to assess future changes; in Eastern forests, risk of altered distribution will be relatively high for some hardwood species and will depend on how disturbances change. For bird species distribution, species vulnerabilities were based on empirical models that include habitat, physiology, phenology, and biotic interactions; habitat specialists will generally be more vulnerable to climate change than generalists. Risk assessment must consider the biosocial context of the system being evaluated, reflecting contributions of ecosystem services and the capability of forest systems to withstand stress." @default.
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• W113204564 date "2013-11-09" @default.
• W113204564 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W113204564 title "Risk Assessment" @default.
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• W113204564 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7515-2_9" @default.
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