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- W117680304 abstract "I. INTRODUCTION 1455II. COMMUNICATING CLIMATE CHANGE 1458III. DEMAND 1461IV. SUPPLY 1466V. INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 1472VI. PLANETARY IDENTITY 1476I. INTRODUCTIONIn 1958, Charles David began measuring concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in atmosphere, at a site 11,000 feet above sea level near top of Mauna Loa on big island of Hawaii. The time series of monthly averages, Keeling Curve, is iconic figure of climate change (see Figure 1). The curve oscillates and rises. The annual oscillations (whose details are seen in Figure's inset) are consequences of seasonal breathing of northern-hemisphere forests, which remove CO2 from atmosphere during their growing season and return CO2 to atmosphere as their leaves decay on forest floor in winter. The steady rise - on average today, about 0.5% per year - is due primarily to burning of fossil fuels. Indeed, average rise would be twice as fast if all of CO2 released during fossil-fuel burning stayed in atmosphere. Roughly half of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels stay in atmosphere, one quarter go into ocean (making it more acidic), and one quarter enter forests that, despite deforestation, are growing bigger.1The era of consciousness of climate change began with Reeling's intrepid measurements.3 The seasonal oscillations in Figure 1 were unexpected, and it was soon clear that atmospheric CO 2 measurements were a new index of global human impact. The political message was that global atmosphere mixes and retains a large part of world's CO2 emissions, oblivious to what fuel is burned, in what country, and for what purpose. Again and again over past fifty years, modelers have estimated future human emissions on basis of assumptions about economy and technology, while environmental scientists have gradually improved their ability to describe likely consequences for global warming, sea-level rise, ecosystem disturbance, and hydrocycle disruption (storms, floods, droughts, etc.).The landmark international treaty, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is often called Convention, because it was negotiated in de Janeiro at Earth Summit in June of 1992. As can be discerned from Figure 2, rate of fossil fuel emissions almost tripled between 1958 and 1992 (from 8.5 to 22.7 billion tons of CO2 per year, an average increase of 2.9% per year for thirty-four years). By 2010, it had increased by another 40% (to 33.5 billion tons of CO2 per year, an average increase of 2.2% per year for eighteen years) and was four times larger than in 1958.4I write soon after returning from Rio + 20, a blockbuster United Nations event in June 2012 celebrating twentieth anniversary of Convention. The mood in was sober. United Nations diplomacy appeared to be shutting down. Judging from political rhetoric, discussion of climate change in United States has already shut down. A premise of this Essay is that current impasse has little social value. This Essay is about finding restart buttons.I am addressing the environmental by which I mean all those who engage with environmental issues, notably climate change, whether professionally or simply because they find issues compelling. The environmental community extends well beyond environmental activist community and environmental nongovernmental organizations. My assumption is that nearly all members of environmental community, independent of where they stand on particular issues, feel frustrated by current incoherent state of affairs and lack of progress. The environmental community definitely includes me, which is why, below, I frequently refer to this community as we. …" @default.
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- W117680304 date "2012-11-01" @default.
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- W117680304 title "Truths We Must Tell Ourselves to Manage Climate Change" @default.
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