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- W11866724 abstract "This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest." @default.
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- W11866724 date "2010-05-01" @default.
- W11866724 modified "2023-09-22" @default.
- W11866724 title "Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts" @default.
- W11866724 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
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