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• W133058541 abstract "Moscow: Institute of Economic Strategy, 2006. 656 pp. ... Many books on China have recently appeared on the book market. The growing interest of average readers, as well as academics, is understandable - the phenomenon of China's current development is objectively arousing a systemic and long-term interest in this country, both at the level of the expert community, and a general reader. On the other hand, it is also generating an increase in shoddy tenth-rate literature written by authors who have absolutely nothing to do with problems. Unfortunately, real masterpieces of analytical thought based on extensive research by professional Sinologists often become lost in this avalanche of superficial publications. One of such masterpieces undoubtedly is the monograph by two brilliant scholars - Academician Mikhail Titarenko and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Kuzyk titled China-Russia 2050: Co-Development Strategy. ... In our opinion, this work is unique for three reasons. First, it is written by high-class professionals, each of whom represents independent scientific schools and areas of research. The methods of economic analysis and forecasting developed by the academics of the Institute of Economic Strategy headed by Boris Kuzyk are well-known both in Russia and abroad. There can be no doubt about the role and prestige the RAS Institute for Far Eastern Studies and its director, Mikhail Titarenko, who made the Institute a recognized leader in Chinese, Japanese, and APR studies, enjoy in Russian and foreign Sinology. ... Second, the book intrinsically and skillfully combines advanced experience in economic forecasting and contemporary Sinology. By imparting structural form to China's current and future development according to nine key parameters, Mikhail Titarenko and Boris Kuzyk have essentially shown the internal and external anatomy of the Chinese miracle for the not-so-distant future (10 - 15 years) and for the longer term (45 - 50 years). ... стр. 130 ... Third, the work is unique because of its innovative nature. Boris Kuzyk's method of forecasting, which was earlier applied to Russian and other realities, has been fundamentally applied to realities in this book. Actually for the first time in modern expert literature, it is possible to take a look at the entire set of PRC development scenarios until 2050, both on the whole and in terms of separate parameters - administration, natural resources, the population, economic development, culture and religion, the armed forces, foreign policy, and others. This is the work's important scientific-innovative and forecasting significance. ... The topic of administration in the PRC (Chap. 1) is presented fundamentally and on an extraordinarily wide scale. It analyzes a set of questions on the correlation between authoritarianism and democracy in its version (Chap. 1.2.), the fight against corruption, and the prospects for a political reform in China as a whole against the background of successful economic modernization. It is obvious that the problem of political modernization is not only of scientific but also of sociopolitical significance. China's future essentially depends on the success or failure of the reforms. And the forecasts on this topic are of particular interest. The authors offer three possible development scenarios in the PRC's political sphere. ... 1. The liberal scenario. Given an increase in internal and external pressure on the leadership, there could be a radical acceleration in the rate and deadlines of the reform of the political system in terms of its liberalization. The strengthening of oligarchic groups in the PRC that are materially and ideologically oriented toward the West and have a political influence on the leadership is noted as an important internal determinant. Another factor is the possibility of vacillations or even a split in the leadership (p. 56). In other words, the matter concerns a scenario for carrying out a Velvet Revolution of sorts in China. The authors talk about the improbability of it coming to fruition. If it does, it could be a disaster for China and have a negative effect on neighboring Russia. However, in the purely hypothetical sense, Russia should keep in mind its possible parameters and consequences. ... 2. The leftist-radical scenario, i.e. the activation of the New Leftists in the society and leadership, the curtailment of the liberal economic reforms, and a return to the ideology and practice of Maoism. The authors note that the objective factors for its implementation, although highly unlikely, are the social polarization into poor and rich going on in society today, the confrontation between the developed and backward regions, an increase in unemployment, the environmental crisis, and others. It is obvious that this scenario would lead China to a revival of radical nationalism, which apart from having an anti-American bent, could quite easily assume an anti-Russian orientation." @default.
• W133058541 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W133058541 date "2007-03-31" @default.
• W133058541 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W133058541 title "B. Kuzyk, M. Titarenko. China-Russia 2050: Co-Development Strategy" @default.
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