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- W146056216 abstract "Information markets are low volume markets whose prices offer informative estimates on particular policy topics of interest. Observers have expressed concern that such prices might be less informative due to manipulators, i.e., traders who prefer that we see some policy estimates instead of others. We adapt a Kyle-style market microstructure model to the case of information markets, by assuming risk-neutrality and by allowing information effort and general trader irrationality. We add a trader who has an additional quadratic preference regarding the price, and we make ordinary traders uncertain about this manipulator’s target price. We find that the mean target price has no effect on prices, but that increases in the variance of the target price increase average price accuracy, by increasing the returns to informed trading." @default.
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- W146056216 date "2004-01-01" @default.
- W146056216 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W146056216 title "Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy" @default.
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