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- W146446809 abstract "am in broad agreement with the arguments presented by both John Williamson and Matthew Martin. More than 50 low-income countries are very vulnerable to exogenous shocks as a result of commodity prices changes and the concentration of their exports in one, two, or perhaps even three commodities that account for more than half of their exports. Many of these shocks are the result of sharp changes in terms of trade. As has been observed, every two or three years terms of trade shocks can reduce their exports by 2.5 to 7 percent of GDP and, when you take the full multiplier effects of this, by as much as 20 percent of GDP. These are estimates of Paul Collier made at the World Bank. Other exogenous shocks are related to natural disasters, the impact of conflicts in neighbouring countries, sudden reductions in aid, imposition of trade barriers in major markets, and others. The frequency and severity of shocks are closely correlated to growth; their impact on growth is asymmetric and their effects are often irreversible. High volatility has been demonstrated to be harmful to output and harmful to growth. The volatility of macroeconomic variables tends to have not only high output costs, but tends to lead to the curtailment of investment in infrastructure. There is evidence that half of the total fiscal adjustment efforts in Latin America in the 1990s was achieved through the curtailment of investments in infrastructure and these cuts were not compensated subsequently. So, the pro-cyclical policies resulted in a decline in GDP growth rate of about one percent a year." @default.
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- W146446809 date "2005-01-01" @default.
- W146446809 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W146446809 title "Curbing the Impact of Shocks" @default.
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