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• W1480521299 abstract "ABSTRACTThis paper explores the demand and pricing of apartments in Houston, Texas from 1980 to 2011. Both the price of apartments and the occupancy rate during this period are considered. purpose of this paper is to determine how factors such as employment and population affect the demand for apartments. Some simple models are developed to forecast future occupancy rates and rental prices.INTRODUCTIONThe objective of this paper is to develop models to help forecast occupancy rates and rental rates for apartments in the Houston area. This would help investors understand the apartment market and make better decisions about new apartment construction. price of rental units is decided by supply and demand for those units just as it is with other goods. actual relationships among factors impacting supply and demand are the focus of this paper.BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEWEstimating future price for apartments has historically presented problems to practitioners in the field. Supply and demand are constantly at work in the market place. Figure 1 provides a simple model for the relationship between rental rates, new apartment construction, and the occupancy rate for apartments. It is circular because as units are filled and occupancy rate increases, there is an incentive to raise the rates because the demand is increasing relative to the supply of units. As the rents increases, developers have an incentive to build more units. As more units become available, the occupancy rates are again affected but in the opposite direction.However, there are other factors external to the model shown in Figure 1 that must be considered. Two important ones are employment and population. If population is increasing faster than apartment availability is increasing, occupancy rate may continue to increase as demand outpaces the increase in supply. This may lead to another increase in rents, and the process continues. What might cause population to increase? One cause would be a growth in jobs (employment). Even with these factors considered, this is a simple model. Other factors, such as changes in the supply due to older apartments being tom down, new single family rentals on the market, may impact this process. Further study in this area is ongoing.Understanding the demand for apartments and other commercial space has been the focus of many studies. Malizia (1991) recognized that long-term demand-side forecasting models needed to include economic development variables. Wheaton and Torto (1990) linked job growth to industrial supply and demand. There is a plethora of empirical data linking employment to various factors influencing demand for real estate, Numerous methods and models to forecast one aspect of real estate or another have appeared. In one of these, Valente, Wu, Gelfand and Sirmans' (2005) present a spatial model for predicting apartment rents.Lentz and Tse (1999) present models to relate the performance and needs of the goods market to the demand for commercial real estate. They noted, The commercial real estate market is frequently observed to be in an extended state of disequilibrium. Since there is a time lag between the beginning of the construction cycle and the time when the finished space is available for rent, it can be difficult to make an accurate estimate of future space demands. It is common to overbuild or fail to build enough space simply because the market changed at some point during the construction cycle. decision to build new apartment space should be made after weighing expectations of future demand, apartment space under construction, absorption rates and the amount of vacant space already in the market. Lentz and Tse further observed, With future demand uncertain, the supply (quantity) of space and the realized demand for space may not match. If the supply is less than the realized demand, the space producer will be able to lease out all the new space. …" @default.
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• W1480521299 date "2013-09-01" @default.
• W1480521299 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W1480521299 title "Economic Factors Impacting the Houston Apartment Market" @default.
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