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• W148521994 abstract "Although Kenya has 1 of the oldest family planning programs in sub-Saharan Africa (established in 1967) the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey (KFS) revealed that the country had 1 of the highest fertility levels in the continent. Current evidence indicates that the total fertility rate (TFR) may be declining; this comes from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. The TFR decreased from 8.1 in 1977-78 to 6.7 in 1989. There are many unanswered questions concerning this fertility decline which cannot be answered from a simple examination of period fertility indices such as the TFR. Although period rates are widely used there are 2 major disadvantages of studying fertility trends from summary measures. First period rates may rise or fall with changes in birth timing independently of changes in cohort completed fertility. Second summary indices cannot clarify whether fertility change can be attributed to changing reproductive patterns at low or high parities. A preferable approach for examining fertility trends if 1 that disaggregates the family formation process into its basic components (i.e. transition to 1st marriage 1st birth and births of successive orders) and examines each of them separately. This study uses this approach to study fertility change in Kenya. The initial objective is to translate the recent fertility decline into birth interval dynamics. A secondary objective for this study is to employ multivariate hazard models to examine the determinants of birth progression as different parity stages. Authors findings indicate that Kenyan fertility decline cannot be attributed to a delay in the onset of childbearing. The median ate at 1st birth did not change over the study period even though there was a trend towards later union formation. Most of the decline resulted from changes in the tempo and quantum of reproduction. The analysis demonstrates that there was an increase in the median length of all birth intervals and parallel reductions in the quintums of progression at all parities. The increase in interval length has been especially pronounced for women at parity 4. This change in reproductive behavior is consistent with the decline in ideal family size (from 6.7 in 1977-78 to 4.4 children in 1989) and with the relatively large increase in contraceptive use at medium parities. All indicators seem to suggest a continued fertility decline in the future. (authors modified)" @default.
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• W148521994 date "1991-01-01" @default.
• W148521994 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W148521994 title "Fertility decline in Kenya: the role of timing and spacing of births." @default.
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