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- W1486144575 abstract "Prediction of the future mortality of life annuity portfolios is one of the major concerns faced by life insurance companies. Prediction of mortality curves is, however, a complicated challenge and a number of prediction models have been developed by scientists, actuaries, demographers and political planners. This paper investigates the simplest and perhaps most popular prediction model, namely the prediction model using the currently observed mortality as a prediction for future mortality. We call this predictor the ’at risk’ estimator. This prediction estimator is compared to the actually observed mortality throughout the period 1900-1996 in Denmark. Our investigations show that the maximal error made by the simple prediction model corresponds to an interest rate of 0.7% on life annuities. Another way of formulating this is to say that old age retirees of age 65 have lived up to two years longer than the ’at risk’ prediction model has indicated." @default.
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- W1486144575 date "2001-01-01" @default.
- W1486144575 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1486144575 title "PREDICTION OF MORTALITIES. A COMPARATIVE DANISH STUDY." @default.
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