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- W1487361724 abstract "There are signs that the Indian economy is coming out of the downturn into which it entered in the second half of the fiscal year 2008-09. Monthly data show that industrial sector growth is positive, credit off-take has improved, and trade is stabilizing. The external sector is helping growth in a national accounting sense, because imports fell faster than exports. Financial markets are back to normal with a recovery of the Bombay stock exchange to an 18-month high, and near re-adjustment of the risk spread on Indian debt instruments. Inflation is resurfacing because the base effect of high energy prices last year is diminishing, and food price inflation is high, not least because of a deficient monsoon. Fiscal stimulus supported aggregate demand to the tune of 3.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2008-09 because of the sixth pay commission awards and three fiscal stimulus packages. Monetary policy appears to be at a crossroad, with interest rates held stable due to the dilemma between high consumer price indices (CPIs) and low wholesale price index (WPI) inflation indicators. Looking forward, the external economic environment is stabilizing, but difficulties continue and Indian economic growth will have to rely more on domestic factors. The short-term forecast for India is cautiously optimistic, with growth in the current year projected at 6 percent, and a sharper recovery to 7.5 percent next fiscal year. Fiscal policy provides more stimulus with an increase in the overall deficit to about 10.3 percent of GDP envisaged for 2009-10, one percent of GDP higher than the already high deficit of 2008-09. Monetary policy walks the tightrope between accommodation and vigilance, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aims to ensure that the high government borrowing requirement does not crowd out private sector borrowing on one hand, and does not cause the reemergence of inflation on the other. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of capital flows and the exchange rate, highlighting the constraints on policies in an economy that has become more and more open to international trade and capital flows." @default.
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- W1487361724 date "2009-09-01" @default.
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- W1487361724 title "India economic update" @default.
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