FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W148960571> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W148960571 abstract "Using state-level poll data, we analyze Obama’s out- and underperformance of the predictions in the 2008 US presidential elections. The analyses show that the polls systematically mispredicted state margins. While they were unconditionally unbiased, i.e., accurate on average, they were conditionally biased. The stronger the frontrunner was projected to be, the more he outperformed the prediction, providing evidence for voter polarization not anticipated in the polls. We further contrast social desirability, sample selection, and momentum neglect by proposing which state-level social and demographic indicators capture which of the three biases and hypothesize the direction of the effect under the proposed biases. Numerous state-level indicators relate to Obama out- or underperforming the prediction and account for nearly 60 percent of the variance in the prediction error, falsifying that the prediction error was random. Net of other influences, Obama outperformed where unemployment and education were higher, in states with many non-English speakers, and where a greater share of people lived in nonfamily households. Obama underperformed where per-capita income was higher, where a greater share of people had no health insurance, where a greater share of people lived in metropolitan areas, and where religious diversity was low. The directions of these effects suggest that all three biases - social desirability, sample selection, and momentum neglect - may have been present in the polls. The study underscores the benefits of a theory-driven approach to jointly analyzing multiple sources of bias." @default.
• W148960571 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W148960571 creator A5072495664 @default.
• W148960571 date "2010-01-01" @default.
• W148960571 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W148960571 title "Analyzing Obama’s Out- and Under Performance in the 2008 Presidential Elections: Social Desirability Bias, Sample Selection, and Momentum Neglect in the Polls" @default.
• W148960571 cites W102120265 @default.
• W148960571 cites W1556631438 @default.
• W148960571 cites W1989473809 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2046622454 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2082390968 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2097240997 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2116942087 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2117158383 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2134884007 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2138322758 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2152623314 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2157502656 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2158108150 @default.
• W148960571 cites W2299786316 @default.
• W148960571 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1623204" @default.
• W148960571 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
• W148960571 type Work @default.
• W148960571 sameAs 148960571 @default.
• W148960571 citedByCount "0" @default.
• W148960571 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W148960571 hasAuthorship W148960571A5072495664 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C10138342 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C118552586 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C127598652 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C144024400 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C149923435 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C15744967 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C185592680 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C197487636 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C198531522 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C2776289891 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C2776367032 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C2776502983 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C2908647359 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C2993202890 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C40423286 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C4249254 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C43617362 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C60718061 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C77805123 @default.
• W148960571 hasConcept C94625758 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C10138342 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C105795698 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C118552586 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C127598652 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C144024400 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C149782125 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C149923435 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C154945302 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C15744967 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C162324750 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C17744445 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C185592680 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C197487636 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C198531522 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C199539241 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C2776289891 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C2776367032 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C2776502983 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C2908647359 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C2993202890 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C33923547 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C40423286 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C41008148 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C4249254 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C43617362 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C60718061 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C77805123 @default.
• W148960571 hasConceptScore W148960571C94625758 @default.
• W148960571 hasLocation W1489605711 @default.
• W148960571 hasOpenAccess W148960571 @default.
• W148960571 hasPrimaryLocation W1489605711 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W1593330879 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W1687616318 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W1963945827 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2032630720 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2050059411 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2054179050 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2141681986 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2170172599 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2171633346 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2300791192 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2314461134 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2326900080 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2749010351 @default.
• W148960571 hasRelatedWork W2804935516 @default.

• next