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- W149194415 abstract "Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties or candidates should locate themselves at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including estimates of electoral valence. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c. It has been shown that high values of c imply that there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. We used a electoral survey for the 2004 election in Canada to construct a stochastic valence model of the election. The survey allows us to estimate partisan constituency positions for the parties and to model the relationship between party position and vote share in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. We find that the Nash equilibrium for the election outside Quebec is one where the centrifugal tendency dominates. We suggest that this is due to the regional characteristic of the Canadian polity. This result was compared with other empirical results for countries with proportional electoral systems, namely Israel, Turkey and Poland, where the centrifugal tendency is very high, and with the majoritarian polities of the United States and Great Britain, where the centrifugal tendency is very low." @default.
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- W149194415 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W149194415 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W149194415 title "The Convergence Coefficient and the Heart fo Election: An Application to Recent Elections in Canada" @default.
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- W149194415 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1938406" @default.
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