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- W1495837151 abstract "The notion of business cycles has been widely used for the analysis of short-term movements of capitalist economies since in early Ninetieth Century. In the Twentieth Century, debates on cycles were extended to cover the development of cyclical indicators that could allow anticipate future movements of economic variables. The theoretical debate has been being controversial. However, empirical research was more fertile, allowing a large set of indicators to be developed. Burns and Mitchell (1946) proposed a set of these index used for forecast purposes. This paper uses the methodology of principal components and seventy-three time series to build a model of leading and coincident indicators for Brazilian economy. This model with a model ARIMA is compared, as well as, executes combinations of forecasts between the two models, searching improvement of the anticipations of the cyclical fluctuations." @default.
- W1495837151 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1495837151 date "2006-01-01" @default.
- W1495837151 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1495837151 title "CICLOS E PREVISÃO CÍCLICA: UM MODELO DE INDICADORES ANTECEDENTES PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA" @default.
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