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- W1498487926 abstract "We study the problem of prediction in sequences of binary random variables. Models are studied for this kind of situation and then considered vis-a-vis the Gambler’s Fallacy a famous case study in Psychology (also known as Law of Maturity). Previous statistical studies proposed such modeling under the bayesian perspective. In them there is the assumption of exchangeability and, as a result, maturity is a inadmissible behavior. In this study, a new model in which the Gambler’s belief need not be a fallacy is presented. This one is the usual finite population model and, therefore, only operationally meaningful quantities (operational parameters) are involved. A class of prior distributions for the operational parameter which yield non-extendable models is presented. It is a class of distributions which we defined as tighter than the Binomial. Maturity is a consequence of the belief in the prior distributions of this class. Furthermore, a subclass which refers to the distributions that are second-order tighter than the Binomial is presented. For prior distributions of this subclass the predictive failure rate is increasing, which can be interpreted as the most extreme case of maturity. The results of this study may contribute on the judgment of how reasonable the assumption of infinite exchangeability is relative to typical human perception. Another major contribution is related to the study on extendibility conditions in binary processes." @default.
- W1498487926 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1498487926 creator A5047488411 @default.
- W1498487926 date "2015-11-06" @default.
- W1498487926 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1498487926 title "Permutabilidade de quantidades aleatórias binárias e a falácia do apostador" @default.
- W1498487926 cites W1568513494 @default.
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- W1498487926 doi "https://doi.org/10.11606/d.45.2009.tde-25032009-111920" @default.
- W1498487926 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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