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• W1498573237 abstract "Le changement climatique en cours provoque une derive rapide de la repartition des plantes a diverses echelles. Dans du Sud-est de la France, de 1998 a 2008, les forets mediterraneennes ont subi un episode exceptionnellement chaud et sec, faisant suite a un rechauffement plus limite depuis les annees 70. Les modifications de la flore pendant cette periode ont ete d'une part simulees a l'echelle locale avec un modele bioclimatique, et d'autre part observees dans des placettes permanentes avec deux inventaires successifs. Le modele predit un changement de 25 % de la flore avec le climat moyen des 10 dernieres annees. Un changement de 14 % a ete observe dans les placettes permanentes entre les deux inventaires, au detriment des plantes exigeantes en eau. Les modifications sont d'autant plus fortes que les sites sont favorables (haute altitude, exposition fraiche, sols profonds, topographie favorable), et elles ne sont pas significatives dans les sites les plus secs et les plus chauds. Cela suggere que les principaux changements se sont produits quand la compensation des deficits hydriques d'origine climatique par des conditions locales favorables n'etait plus suffisante pour permettre la survie des especes mesophiles. Ce seuil critique devrait se deplacer vers des situations plus chaudes et plus seches avec le climat futur. A l'echelle du paysage, diverses strategies permettent une resistance partielle de la composition vegetale. Cependant, les reseaux actuels d'espaces proteges pourraient etre inadaptes pour assurer a long terme la survie de certaines especes. Avec le changement de flore mesure, la plupart des especes rares protegees dans ces reserves disparaitrait potentiellement de la zone d'etude des la deuxieme moitie du 21e siecle. / The ongoing climate change causes a rapid shift of plant distribution at various scales. In South-eastern France from 1998 to 2008, Mediterranean forests experienced an exceptionally hot and dry episode following a regular but more limited warming since the 70's. Flora turnover for this period was both simulated at local scale with a bioclimatic model and measured in permanent plots with two censuses. Model prediction for this turnover with the mean climate of the last 10 years was 25%. A 14% turnover was observed in the permanent plots between the two censuses, fully biased against water demanding species. Changes were all the more fast than sites were favourable (high altitude, cool orientation, deep soils, favourable topography), and were not significant in the driest and hottest sites. This suggests that the main changes occurred when the compensation of climatic water deficits by local site favourable conditions was no longer sufficient to allow mesophilous species to survive. Such a threshold should shift towards hottest and driest situations with the future climate. On the landscape scale, various strategies allow a partial plant composition resistance. However, current reserve networks may be inadequate to ensure long-term species persistence. With the measured flora shift, most of the rare species protected in these reserves would potentially disappear from the study area soon in the second half of the 21st century." @default.
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• W1498573237 date "2010-08-17" @default.
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• W1498573237 title "Climate Change Impact on Vegetation: Lessons from an Exceptionally Hot and Dry Decade in South-Eastern France" @default.
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• W1498573237 doi "https://doi.org/10.5772/9811" @default.
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