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• W1503676541 abstract "IntroductionThe prevention of systemic crises (and in particular of currency crises) has started to raise a growing interest, especially in the last decade of the last century, following the crises of the European Monetary System (1992), Mexico (1994), in the countries of South-Eastern Asia, as well as in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea (1997) or in Russia (1998).The economic literature distinguishes between three patterns of financial crises: currency, banking and external debt crises. However, in practice there are no pure forms of crises. A special concept in the economic theory in this respect is that of Twin Crises - the currency and the banking sector crises. The crises in Asia (1997), Russia (1998) or Turkey (2000) are good examples. Other forms of complex crises are the currency and fiscal crises: Brazil (1999) or currency and external debt crises: Mexico (1994), Argentina (2001), USA (2007), and Europe (2009).1. Theoretical approachesIt is difficult to fonnulate a clear and precise definition of currency crises. An approximate definition could be the loss of confidence in the national currency, expressed by increased demand to exchange the domestic currency for a foreign currency, which leads either to the strong devaluation/depreciation of the national currency, or to the decrease in currency reserves or restrictions on capital movements [1].(A) In the economic literature, financial crises are categorized into three generations of models. Opinions are divided as regards this classification: some authors, such as Krugman (1998), consider only two generations of models: the speculative financial crises are included in the last type of models. The first generation of models was introduced by Krugman (1979) [2] and subsequently developed by Flood and Garber (1984). According to this type of models, in the context of a fixed exchange rate, an expansion of excess credit in relation to the increase in money demand leads to a gradual, but persistent, loss of international reserves, and eventually to a speculative attack on the exchange rate. Companies realize they will record losses if they hold domestic currency and, consequently, they sell it right when the so-called shadow exchange is equal to the fixed exchange-rate (shadow exchange rate is the exchange that would exist is the exchange was not fixed), reserves are exhausted and the authorities are forced to abandon the parity. This model characterizes times of crisis as times when the currency reserves of authorities decrease persistently, and internal credit increases more rapidly than the money demand. If the excess supply of money is the result of the need to finance the public sector, than the large fiscal deficits and the credit to the public sector may serve as crisis indicators.Agenor, Bhandari and Flood (1992) [3], suggest that, according to this crisis version, variables of external nature, such as the real exchange rate, may serve as crisis indicators as well. For instance, the deterioration of the trade balance and the current account may be the result of expansionary fiscal and/or credit policies, which may lead to an increase in demand for import goods and for a part of the previously exported goods. Moreover, the relative price of services increases, due to the fact that expansionary policies lead to an increase in related demand. Consequently, the price level is high, which leads to a real appreciation of currency. Thus, variations in the real exchange may be considered crisis indicators.More recent models suggest that the authorities abandon parity not only due to the decrease in reserves, but also following the evolution of other variables.Ozkan and Sutherland (1995) [4] highlight that the authorities have an objective that depends positively on maintaining the nominal fixed exchange and negatively on the deviations of production in relation to a given target level. …" @default.
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• W1503676541 title "Currency crises and some theoretical approaches. Evolution of the currency crises in Romania" @default.
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