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• W1509722140 abstract "Some predict that climate change will decrease average crop yield and increase yield variability. While the first effect, as well as possible adaption strategies, have been studied extensively, the second is less well understood and the topic of this paper. A unique feature of commodity crops is that they can be stored between periods, thereby allowing storage to smooth production shocks across time. We pair a rational competitive storage model with a statistical analysis linking global production of the four major commodity crops (maize, wheat, rice and soybeans) and climate forecasts from 16 global climate models. The rational storage model predicts a doubling of average storage levels by 2050, slightly raising average prices to cover higher storage losses, but at the same significantly reducing price variability compared to a storage rule that is optimal under past yield distributions. Storage market responses to future yield variability greatly mitigate potential welfare losses of greater production volatility." @default.
• W1509722140 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1509722140 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W1509722140 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W1509722140 title "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change" @default.
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• W1509722140 doi "https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.124827" @default.
• W1509722140 hasPublicationYear "2012" @default.
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