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• W1510930772 abstract "Water management is increasingly challenged by pressures from populationgrowth, sea level rise and potential climate change. Moreover, these developmentsare highly uncertain and change over time. The challenge is to developstrategies that are either robust - insensitive to the future - or flexible enough toadapt to changing conditions. Adaptation is not only determined by what is knownor anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned whilethe future unfolds, and by policy responses to social and water events. As a result,an adaptation pathway emerges. Exploring adaptation pathways into the future willprovide indispensable support to decisionmaking in achieving sustainable watermanagement. For a structured exploration of the various adaptation pathways, weare developing a computational model of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands. Withthis model, we will simulate an evolvement of the system wherein pressures influencethe water system state, and impacts on flood risk and water services such asagriculture and nature, which may then trigger a policy response. The result of thisdynamic simulation is an adaptation pathway. The model should run fast enoughto calculate many 100-year transient scenarios, representing the dominant processesand natural variability, and be able to implement various policy options. Toenable such dynamic modelling we are developing an Integrated AssessmentMetaModel (IAMM) using the technique of metamodelling. Metamodels are simpleaggregated models that approximate the behaviour of complex and detailed models.The IAMM is simple in terms of process and spatial information, but complexin terms of time-series and policy response. The challenge is to capture enoughdetail and process information ensuring an adequate model behavior for policyanalysis. We present the concept and describe for which situations - policy optionsand effects - the model can be used to support decisionmaking under uncertainty." @default.
• W1510930772 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1510930772 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W1510930772 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W1510930772 title "An Integrated Assessment Metamodel for Developing Adaptation Pathways for Sustainable Water Management in the Lower Rhine Delta" @default.
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