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- W1515749947 abstract "In risk assessments, a primary objective is to determine the frequency with which a collection of initiating and basic events, E{sub e} leads to some undesired top event, T. Uncertainties in the occurrence rates, x{sub t}, assigned to the initiating and basic events cause uncertainty in the top event frequency, z{sub T}. The quantification of the uncertainty in z{sub T} is an essential part of risk assessment called uncertainty analysis. In the past, it has been difficult to evaluate the extreme percentiles of output variables like z{sub T}. Analytic methods such as the method of moments do not provide estimates of output percentiles and the Monte Carlo (MC) method can be used to estimate extreme output percentiles only by resorting to large sample sizes. A promising altemative to these methods is the fast probability integration (FPI) methods. These methods approximate the integrals of multi-variate functions, representing percentiles of interest, without recourse to multi-dimensional numerical integration. FPI methods give precise results and have been demonstrated to be more efficient than MC methods for estimating extreme output percentiles. FPI allows the analyst to choose extreme percentiles of interest and perform sensitivity analyses in those regions. Such analyses can provide valuable insights asmore » to the events driving the top event frequency response in extreme probability regions. In this paper, FPI methods are adapted a) to precisely estimate extreme top event frequency percentiles and b) to allow the quantification of sensitivity measures at these extreme percentiles. In addition, the relative precision and efficiency of alternative methods for treating lognormally distributed inputs is investigated. The methodology is applied to the top event frequency expression for the dominant accident sequence from a risk assessment of Grand Gulf nuclear power plant.« less" @default.
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- W1515749947 date "1993-10-01" @default.
- W1515749947 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1515749947 title "Analysis of extreme top event frequency percentiles based on fast probability integration" @default.
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