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- W151837277 abstract "This paper emphasises the pervasive role of probability models in statistics, and the importance of the role of prediction in statistics. I argue that all thinking, including everyday decision making, is based on the use of models: theories, stereotypes, metaphors, stories, myths, equations, diagrams, blueprints. Scientific thinking, including statistical thinking, is not different from ‘everyday’ thinking, but is a formalisation of it. Just as we ‘learn from experience’, a scientific theory is tested against observed data. Statistics is a body of techniques for developing and assessing models, particularly those involving uncertainty. This modelling process takes place at all levels of a statistical analysis, not only in ‘model selection’. Examples are given to illustrate these processes. Particular attention is given to the role of hypothesis testing, showing how it is a form of model selection between two models, one of which is ‘privileged’. Researchers, if they are to understand the role of statistics in scientific research, must understand the role of models in science generally and in statistics in particular." @default.
- W151837277 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W151837277 date "2000-12-30" @default.
- W151837277 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W151837277 title "Statistics on the catwalk: The importance of models in training researchers in statistics" @default.
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- W151837277 doi "https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.00107" @default.
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