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• W1519007578 abstract "Private agents’ expectations of future monetary policy decisions play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy via their infl uence on long-term interest rates, asset prices and the exchange rate. That is why the credibility of monetary policy, defi ned as the degree of confi dence of private agents in the central bank’s determination and ability to conduct the monetary policy and achieve the objectives that it has announced, is a key concern for central banks. The New Keynesian model, whose use has become widespread over the past years both in academic circles and within central banks, appears a particularly relevant theoretical framework for studying the credibility of monetary policy because it explicitly takes account of private agents’ expectations while remaining very easy to use. This article presents the three main credibility problems that monetary policy may face, as well as their solutions, in the framework of this model. Two of these problems, termed the “infl ation bias” and the “stabilisation bias” in the literature, are associated with the notion of time-inconsistency whereby the central bank may have an incentive under certain circumstances not to implement a monetary policy announced beforehand. The third problem is that of the “self-fulfi lling expectations” that may arise if the monetary policy followed is unable to uniquely anchor private agents’ expectations. This article is based on a general approach, illustrated by the experience of a number of central banks. Emphasis is placed on the importance of the management of private agents’ expectations by the central bank in the conduct of its monetary policy, notably with the aim of optimally infl uencing long-term interest rates. The arguments put forward stress the need for an independent and transparent monetary policy aiming to ensure price stability over the medium to long term. They also support a gradualist approach to monetary policy, possibly accompanied by adequate communication on the expected future path for the short-term interest rate and responding, where necessary, to private agents’ expectations in an appropriate manner, by attempting for example to “disconnect” current variables from these expectations." @default.
• W1519007578 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1519007578 date "2007-01-01" @default.
• W1519007578 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W1519007578 title "The credibility of monetary policy from a New Keynesian perspective" @default.
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