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• W1522306999 abstract "Keeping up with is a pointless waste of time only if you seek bankruptcy, obsolescence, a steady drop in market share, or have a proclivity for psychosomatic disorders. Yet what can you do? The is longer than past by any measure: astronomical, evolutionary, political, institutional, social, etc. It seems hopelessly vague, uncertain and boundless. Nevertheless, you can manage to usefully understand if you embrace following points: * Your organization has a useful, if somewhat loose, long-term planning horizon--usually 10 to as many as 30 years. This immediately squeezes most of out of consideration. * It is not practical to define the future in that 10-to-30 year interval. There are just too many forces in play to influence it and too many factors in whatever you are concerned with to try to identify the by which I mean a precise, detailed, state. But you can identify alternative futures, i.e., a range of ways may evolve that separately and together have implications for your long-term and strategic planning. * Recognize that exploring is an art form. You may or may not have knack, skill, or necessary mental makeup to effectively explore future, but there are certainly people in your organization, or who can be brought in, who do. Furthermore, there are people who can teach and train others to either think like futurists or, at a minimum, become effective consumers of futures material. * Like most worthwhile activities, exploration of calls for practice more than anything else. The more you do it--the more you do it openly, more you do it collectively, more you share experience--the more rapidly you will become skilled and sophisticated at probing and its implications. * There is lots of help out there to get you started or to improve work you may be doing already. State of Future Two quite different annual reports merit your attention. First are annual reports on state of produced by American Council for United Nations University in its so-called Millennium Project. The Project is brainchild of Theodore (Ted) Gordon, one of three best futurists in last half of 20th century. He is a co-inventor of Delphi process, which is most widely used technique in publicly reported futures studies. He also pioneered application of computers to exploration of future. The most recent report, 2003 State of Future, some 96 pages, is accompanied by a CD containing 2,500 pages backing up this edition plus Project's seven years of accumulated research and methods. The Project has identified 15 Global Challenges: * Sustainable development * Water * Population and resources * Democratization * Global, long-term policy making * Globalization of information technology * Rich-poor gap * Threats to health * Decision-making capacities * Conflict resolution * Improving women's status * Transnational crime * Energy * Science and technology * Global ethics The Project does an annual index of progress with regard to these challenges, quantitatively forecasting whether promises to be better or worse over next ten years. This year's report looks at of S&T management policy issues, presents four scenarios, and draws an extensive array of conclusions in a 25-page chapter. The Project now has 18 nodes around world whose purpose is to reach out to experts, academics and specialists to participate. The work has so far been supported by 17 companies, foundations, international agencies, U.S. government agencies, and UNESCO. The Millennium Project's value lies not merely in high-quality treatment of topics but in establishment of a global consensus of specialists on importance of topics researched, as well as wide range of perspectives they reflect. …" @default.
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• W1522306999 date "2003-11-01" @default.
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• W1522306999 title "Keeping Up with the Future" @default.
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