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• W1523255918 abstract "This paper deals with the usefulness of several measures of financial spreads (the slope of the yield curve, the reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to assess the marginal forecasting power of financial spreads for real economic activity and inflation. A benchmark BVAR is set up, containing real GDP, inflation and key indicators of monetary policy and foreign macroeconomic variables. The properties of the spreads as leading indicator are then assessed by augmenting the benchmark BVAR with the spreads, one at a time. We find that financial spreads have no or negligible marginal predictive con-tent for either target variable. Overall, there is no ready-to-use financial indicator that can replace an encompassing multivariate model for the prediction of target variables in the euro area." @default.
• W1523255918 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1523255918 creator A5072377374 @default.
• W1523255918 date "2005-02-01" @default.
• W1523255918 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W1523255918 title "FORECASTING OUTPUT GROWTH AND INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA: ARE FINANCIAL SPREADS USEFUL?" @default.
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• W1523255918 hasPublicationYear "2005" @default.
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