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- W152721490 abstract "Alan Greenspan speculated about an increase in productivity growth in the mid- 1990s well before standard classical (or frequentist) statistical tests suggested a change. I explore whether Bayesian methods, which are potentially better suited to the problem faced by decision makers, can help in understanding Greenspan's behavior. Using Bayesian techniques, the evidence for a structural change does seem to accumulate sooner than with a classical approach. There is evidence of substantial uncertainty about the extent of the productivity increase, which is unlikely to be captured by simple classical methods. The results suggest that Bayesian methods are useful for examining whether structural change has occurred." @default.
- W152721490 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W152721490 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W152721490 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W152721490 title "Is Alan Greenspan a Bayesian" @default.
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