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- W1529121987 abstract "La elaboracion de escenarios de futuro del empleo adquiere especial interes en el marco de la actual Estrategia Europea de Empleo, introducida en el Consejo de Lisboa (2000) con el objetivo de convertir a la Union Europea en la economia mas competitiva del mundo. Dado que las predicciones basadas en modelos econometricos deben ser interpretadas como expectativas condicionadas a ciertas hipotesis, en este trabajo proponemos la utilizacion de la metodologia shift-share para identificar los distintos componentes (nacional, sectorial y competitivo) que han originado la evolucion reciente del empleo, explicitando posteriormente supuestos sobre su comportamiento futuro. Con este objetivo, se propone complementar los supuestos habituales de “constant shift” y “constant share” con alternativas mas realistas basadas en la modelizacion del efecto competitivo y se presenta una aplicacion empirica a las predicciones sobre empleo regional basadas en la Encuesta de Poblacion Activa (EPA). The definition of future scenarios for the regional employment is becoming increasingly important since the European Employment Strategy was launched at the Lisbon Summit (2000) in order to make out of the European Union the world´s most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world. Since the economic forecasts based on econometric models must be understood as conditional expectations, in this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool for the definition of scenarios, based on the so called national, sectoral and competitive effects.Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the “constant shift” and the “constant share” hypotheses, additional options can be considered based on the expected behaviour of the competitive effect, thus leading to more realistic scenarios. Once these new options are developed, the proposed approach is applied to the definition of future scenarios for the regional employment." @default.
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- W1529121987 date "2005-01-01" @default.
- W1529121987 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1529121987 title "Escenarios de empleo regional. Una propuesta basada en análisis shift-share/Regionel Employment Scenarios. A Schift-Share Approach" @default.
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