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- W1533450831 abstract "Recent economic forecasts increase the probability that firstly, the EMU can start as planned on January 1, 1999 and secondly, that it will start with a large group of countries. The economic implications of the artificially unification of hard-currency and soft-currency countries are analysed by means of macroeconomic model simulations. The results of a large non-optimal EMU are as expected. On the one hand, there are positive income effects for all countries - although unevenly distributed over the participants - on the other hand, the internal (inflation) and external (value of the Euro vis-a-vis the Dollar) stability are at risk. The hard-currency group will be the major winner (in terms of real GDP and employment), whereas the soft-currency group has to carry the adjustment costs to a regime of fixed exchange rates (Euro) which results in slower growth, decline in employment and a deterioration of their budgetary position. The necessary convergence of prices and interest rates leads to an increase (decrease) of inflation and interest rates in the hard-currency countries (soft-currency countries). If the EMU will start with a large group there will be a tendency to devalue the Euro against the Dollar. As a consequence of the uneven economic performance of a large (non-optimal) EMU I would suggest to start the EMU with a core group of hard-currency countries. After this mini EMU succeeded the other Member States could join the EMU." @default.
- W1533450831 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1533450831 date "2002-01-01" @default.
- W1533450831 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W1533450831 title "The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU ? Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations" @default.
- W1533450831 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302670" @default.
- W1533450831 hasPublicationYear "2002" @default.
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