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- W1539490312 abstract "[1] A meteorological view of solar wind structures is useful for probability prediction of the flux enhancement of radiation belt electrons. We report the averaged variations of the solar wind parameters and radiation belt electrons during isolated geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs), using a superposed epoch analysis centered on interplanetary shocks and stream interfaces, respectively, whose arrival times can be used as a precursor for the flux enhancement. A total of 49 CME- and 6 CIR-associated storms with Dst < −100 nT are identified during solar cycle 23 from January 1996 to December 2004. In CME-associated storms, the average flux recovers to the prestorm level about 2 days after a shock arrival. The occurrence probability of the >2 MeV electron flux alert with >103 pfu (pfu = particles cm−2 s−1 sr−1) at geosynchronous orbit 1 day after the shock is only 14% (7 of 49 events) and is smaller than the prestorm level, while the probability 4 days after the shock increases to 43% (21 of 49 events) and is larger than the prestorm level. In CIR-associated storms, the average flux recovers to the prestorm level about 1 day after a stream interface arrival. The probability of an electron flux alert is 83% (5 of 6 events) 1 day after the stream interface arrival and remains at that level for at least the next 4 days." @default.
- W1539490312 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1539490312 date "2006-09-01" @default.
- W1539490312 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W1539490312 title "Flux enhancement of radiation belt electrons during geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions" @default.
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- W1539490312 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2005sw000211" @default.
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