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• W1540087749 abstract "This thesis deals with one obsession: the role of external factors in generating boombustcycles in Latin American countries. In the first chapter, I employ a Markovswitching model to statistically validate the claim that the region is currently experiencinga combination of unprecedented favourable external conditions: highcommodity prices and low global real interest rates. Based on this evidence, I introducea model of a resource-rich small open economy with financial frictions inwhich external conditions switch stochastically between two regimes: “windfall” and“shortfall”. The model is calibrated to Argentina to study how changes in externalconditions give rise to boom-bust cycles. I contribute to the current debate on thedesirability of controls on capital inflows by studying, from a positive perspective,the effects of introducing a regime contingent tax rate on debt holdings. I concludethat the welfare effect, albeit always very small, is determined by the strength of thedomestic financial frictions. The third chapter attempts to empirically evaluate themodel by performing an event study. I assess the ability of the model to reproducethe behaviour of the economy during a five-year window period centered around theGreat Recession of 2008/09. To capture the external environment following LehmanBrothers’ collapse, I introduce a regime switch in global financial conditions: normaland panic periods. I conclude that the model captures remarkably well the dynamicin this period and that its main weakness is the inability to reproduce the largeswings observed in asset prices. The second chapter presents and studies a novelmechanism through which low-frequency fluctuations in foreign interest rates cangenerate different boom-bust patterns in an internationally borrowing constrainedsmall open economy: intertemporal spillovers via collateral markets. When interestrates are low, the presence of a binding international borrowing constraint creates anintertemporal wedge that spills over into the intertemporal equation for capital dueto its dual role as physical capital and financial collateral. As a result, in economieswhere the main source of collateral is reproducible capital, the spillover effect resemblesan investment subsidy and fluctuations are smooth since there are no valuationeffects. In contrast, when non-reproducible capital is posted as collateral, the disturbanceresembles a financial service dividend and the interest rate fluctuations causeample swings in macro aggregates due to their strong impact on asset valuations.It is my belief that in these chapters, I have contributed to our understanding ofmedium-run macroeconomic fluctuations in “semi-peripheral” countries." @default.
• W1540087749 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1540087749 creator A5038048814 @default.
• W1540087749 date "2012-07-01" @default.
• W1540087749 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1540087749 title "On booms and busts in Latin American economies" @default.
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