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- W1540558840 abstract "Canada is the world's largest producer of maple syrup. Syrup production depends on weather and climatic conditions of the sugarbush. However, forest ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. The effect of rapidly changing precipitation and temperature patterns on tree species is of concern as these long-lived organisms cannot quickly adapt to the new environmental conditions in which they find themselves. As temperatures increase it is expected that there will be a change in species' ranges poleward. This study uses Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) weighted sum analysis to project near future (2050) and distant future (2100) suitability maps of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) habitat in Ontario associated with three different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) scenarios. Our maps project an overall decrease in the amount of suitable habitat within the current sugar maple range under the scenarios modelled, which intensifies in the later time period. Furthermore there is a projected shift in central and southern Ontario from a region dominated by suitable habitat to one dominated by unsuitable habitat.La projection d'un decalage spatial de l'habitat de l'erable a sucre en Ontario suite aux changements climatiques : une approche fondee sur les SIGLe Canada est le plus grand producteur mondial de sirop d'erable. La meteo et les conditions climatiques dans les erablieres comptent parmi les facteurs qui influencent fortement la production de sirop. Cependant, les ecosystemes forestiers sont severement touches par les changements climatiques. L'effet de l'evolution rapide des regimes de precipitations et de temperature sur les especes arborescentes est preoccupant, parce que ces organismes d'une longue duree de vie ne peuvent pas s'adapter rapidement aux nouvelles conditions environnementales locales. On predit qu'avec l'augmentation des temperatures, la distribution des especes se deplacera vers le nord. A partir d'un calcul de la somme ponderee s'appuyant sur des outils d'aide a la decision multicritere (ADM) et des systemes d'information geographique (SIG), cette etude entrevoit differentes perspectives dans un avenir rapproche (2050) et lointain (2100) en dressant des cartes de l'indice de qualite de l'habitat de l'erable a sucre (Acer saccharum) en Ontario et en tenant compte des trois scenarios proposes par le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat (GIEC) dans son quatrieme rapport d'evaluation (RE4). Ces cartes permettent d'extrapoler une diminution globale de l'habitat favorable dans l'aire actuelle de distribution de l'erable a sucre, conformement aux scenarios modelises, et qui va en s'intensifiant a la fin de la periode. En outre, on peut etablir des projections selon lesquelles l'habitat favorable qui domine presentement le centre et le sud de l'Ontario sera remplace par un habitat majoritairement defavorable." @default.
- W1540558840 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1540558840 date "2015-05-11" @default.
- W1540558840 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1540558840 title "Projecting a spatial shift of Ontario's sugar maple habitat in response to climate change: A GIS approach" @default.
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- W1540558840 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12197" @default.
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