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• W154262646 abstract "Numerous empirical studies have been devoted to analyses of diverse inflationprocesses and have demonstrated consistent patterns for money price relationships forvarious market economies. While these propositions may be valid for market economies,they do not seem to be holding for the majority of transition economies. Except for Russiaand Poland, no systematic pattern for the money price relationship was detected intransition economies in the first half of the 1990s, thus undermining the conventionalmonetarist view at least in the transitional context. If indeed this were the case, it wouldimply among other things, that traditional tools used for stabilization and control ofinflation in advanced market economies may not be appropriate for transition economies.The main objective of this dissertation is to scrutinize critically and rigorouslyinflation process in post-communist Russia, and the strength, dynamics, and causality of therelationship between inflation and various monetary aggregates. In particular, we test,whether lagged inflation has been an important determinant of contemporaneous rise inprices in this transition economy. In addition, we test whether there is a significantrelationship between inflation and various monetary aggregates, and whether the lowerinflationary environment that emerged in Russia in 1994, and especially in 1995, hascaused the transmission of monetary impulses to future inflation to become both, slowerand weaker. Furthermore, in a twofold aim, we shed some additional light on the issue ofthe choice of lag selection criteria in causality testing on one hand, and the issue ofsuitability of monetary aggregates for influencing and controlling inflation via policyinstrument, in transition economies like the Russian Federation, on the other. Moreover,since each segment of our analysis contributes to the evaluation of the suitability ofstabilization attempts in Russia, the role of international financial institution under whoseinfluence stabilization was conducted, is inevitably brought under the spotlights. In thiscontext, the dual role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of being the maincoordinator of the Western assistance to Russia on one hand, and the main guide to Russianeconomic policy on the other, merits a special attention. Finally, suggestion for furtherresearch and conclusion from the analysis are outlined. The most important findingscontained in this summary are delineated bellow.Our analyses of macroeconomic instability in Postcommunist Russia emphasises thenecessity of coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Although Russia may not be an economy with a fiscal dominant regime, the study demonstratest hat continuing problemswith balancing of goverm-nenbt udget have led to eventualm onetisationo f the deficit. Theanalyses presented in the dissertation reiterate the notion that monetisation of the deficit,rather than the deficit themselves has been affecting the price level in PostcommunistRussia.In contrast to earlier claims, this study produces ample evidence that laggedinflation has been an important determinant of contemporaneous rise in prices inPostcommunist Russia. Using very simple autoregressive models, economic agents wereable to make consistent, unbiased, and efficient one-month ahead forecasts of inflation.Although not rational in the strong form of efficiency, inflationary expectations togetherwith a prevailing inflationary inertia ought to have been taken into consideration instabilisation efforts. The preference for the orthodox money-based stabilisation programsindicates that this was not the case in this transition economy prior to July 1995.The analysis presented in this dissertation illustrates that the influence of changes inbroad money growth on future inflation is considerably weaker and more protracted as thenew economic environment in Russia has become more stable. Our evidence suggests that,the systematic pattern for money price relationship is fading in the new environment. Also,the average speed of transmission from changes in the growth of ruble broad money toinflation has shifted from just over three months in the first two and a half years oftransition to just short of five months thereafter. In addition, the models of inflationpresented in the dissertation give a reasonably good short hand description of thefundamental inflation process in Russia.The results presented in this chapter also unequivocally point out that the choice ofa lag length in distribute lag models can be critical for the outcome of causality testing.Among variety of ad hoc and statistical criteria for the optimum lag length selection, theAkaike's FPE criterion is found to outperform all others. Leaning on these results, thestudy found the existence of the feedback or bilateral causality between inflation and broadmoney in Postcommunist Russia. The findings question the wisdom of choosing moneybasedstabilization as the optimal policy advice for this transition economy.Finally, this chapter argues that the IMF financial and good technical assistance toRussia in the 1990s has been less than generous. Not only the size of the assistance mighthave not been adequate but also the timing and actual disbursements of these funds were insharp discord with pledges. More importantly, the IMF made a number of serious policy mistakes in both design and the implementation of the reforms, which significantlycontributed to a delay in stabilisation of the economy and were thus costly in terms of theloss of welfare to the society. However, the IMF, as a main guide and a coordinator of theWestern assistance to Russia, has done just enough to spoon-fed Russia to the point of noreturn to planned economy and autarky." @default.
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• W154262646 date "2003-01-01" @default.
• W154262646 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W154262646 title "Money supply-inflation relationship in postcommunist Russia" @default.
• W154262646 hasPublicationYear "2003" @default.
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