Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W1543586019> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W1543586019 abstract "This paper develops an early warning system for sovereign debt crises, broadly defined as episodes of outright default, failure of a country to be current on external obligations and substantial access to IMF resources. It estimates a multinomial logit model that makes it possible to differentiate between three regimes labelled 'tranquil', 'pre-crisis' and 'adjustment'. The model includes a large set of macroeconomic variables and is able to predict, in-sample, 78 percent of onsets of crisis while sending false alarms in 34 percent of tranquil cases; its out-of-sample performance is very similar, with 70 percent of entries into crisis correctly predicted and 20 percent of tranquil cases triggering false alarms." @default.
- W1543586019 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1543586019 date "2006-01-01" @default.
- W1543586019 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1543586019 title "A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises" @default.
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- W1543586019 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.914506" @default.
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