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• W1546364461 abstract "‘There is nothing as practical as a good theory’ (Kurt Lewin, 1952) 1 The above quotation seems very relevant to the field of alcohol research, where survey-derived descriptions of consumption and patterns of drinking by socio-demographic status still make up a considerable part 2. Theory-driven research, where the most challenging hypotheses are derived from a theory for empirical testing with the aim of improving the theory and thus our understanding, are still too rare 3. Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures 4, which had been adapted from earlier concepts of Lederman 5, is a notable exception here. It has not only increased our understanding or changes in drinking behaviours, but also served as theoretical basis for many alcohol policy and prevention measures 6, 7. Finally, it has also become the basis for many population modelling efforts of alcohol consumption, when survey data are triangulated with sales or production data 8-10. In the spirit of Lewin or Popper theories are not only the key to understanding the real world, and thus to achieve an understanding of how change it one must test key variables and improve theories 11. For Lewin, as a social psychologist, this meant to test human decision-making experimentally, and then put the results into larger economic or social theory and derived macroeconomic or other equations to explain social change. The same could be applied to the Ledermann/Skog theory, as it contains a human decision-making part and a larger population part. However, for some reason, even though the theory in some form has now been around for more than 50 years, and the ‘final’ theoretical formulation dates back to 1985, there hads not been a great deal of empirical testing of the theory (see 12 for a similar complaint more than 10 years ago, and the situation did not change). For the stochastic multiplicativity part of the theory, i.e. the impact of other factors on individual drinking behaviour, Skog used to refer to his 1979 unpublished report ‘Modeller for drikkeatferd’ [‘Models for drinking behaviour'] as having an empirical basis, which unfortunately has not been very accessible (13; see also 14 for further elaborations). Clearly, an experimental approach in the tradition of Lewin would help to better understand the validity of this part of the theory, especially given the recent improvements in understanding cognition and decision-making 15, 16. For the population-level part of Skog's theory, there have been more empirical tests in the tradition of the original publication, albeit with different statistical methods, including two recent ones described in this issue (17, 18, but also see 19). All these empirical tests used surveys, often cross-sectional repeated surveys in the same country, and examined if the overall change was reflected in different subgroups, often defined by consumption groups separate or combined for sex and age. The population-based empirical tests all concluded to corroborate rather than to refute the population part of Skog's theory. However, some details still seem problematic. The first detail concerns the interpretation of ‘moving up and down’ in concert 4. Is it really ‘in concert’, if the top 5% of Swedish 9th grade students reduce their average annual consumption by 2%, while the corresponding figure for light drinkers was 28.9% 17? Also, do changes in survey answers in the highest groups reflect real change, or just social desirability in a new, dryer climate? For the population as a whole this could be measured by investigating the coverage rate (i.e. the rate to which surveys cover the consumption in a jurisdiction as measured by sales 20), with the hypothesis that coverage rates would go down if per capita consumption goes down. Finally, from a theoretical point of view it is important to include the full population, not only drinkers. Globally, it is clear that most of the differences between countries or temporal differences within countries, e.g. when increasing wealth in low-income countries, are driven by changes in abstention rates (21; see also 22 for an example). Restricting ourselves to drinkers only will not cover many of these changes. In sum, while I highly commend the authors of the two papers 17, 18 on their overall approach to test key theories in our field, more research is necessary to understand the individual basis of decision-making and to expand the theory to all members in society, including abstainers. Such an approach would not only be important to our understanding of social processes at the individual and macrolevel in the tradition of Lewin 11, but could also help to improve alcohol policy measures. None." @default.
• W1546364461 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1546364461 date "2014-07-14" @default.
• W1546364461 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W1546364461 title "Re-examining the theory about the collectivity of changes in alcohol consumption" @default.
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• W1546364461 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/add.12644" @default.
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