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- W1551404964 abstract "This chapter discusses a key parameter of interest to consumers, the security of supply. The derivation of loss of load probability (LOLP) from basic principles is described and it is demonstrated how this relates to plant margin and consumer LOLP payments on the basis of an ascribed value to lost load. A time series model can be used to make an assessment of LOLP at each two-hour subinterval. The estimates can be made using a function derived from regression analysis of actual recorded values of LOLP and plant margin. The optimum level of investment for society is realised when the sum of the consumer LOLP payments together with the incremental generator capital costs reaches a minimum. The results are tested against full operational simulations and used to illustrate the advantage of pooling generation. The chapter also discusses difficulty of realising the optimum using the current market mechanisms." @default.
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- W1551404964 date "1998-10-29" @default.
- W1551404964 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W1551404964 title "LOLP Theory and Optimal Margin" @default.
- W1551404964 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118878293.ch7" @default.
- W1551404964 hasPublicationYear "1998" @default.
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