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- W1552620210 abstract "Several empirical studies have estimated theNon Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment(NAIRU) for Portugal as having been fairly con-stant, despite some minor differences in the esti-mates therein presented. For instance, using asample period beginning in 1983, Marques andBotas (1997) and Luz and Pinheiro (1993) esti-mated a NAIRU around 5.5 per cent that is some-what smaller than the estimates of around 6 percent obtained in Marques (1990) and in Gasparand Luz (1997). The stability of the NAIRU seemsto be a particular feature of the Portuguese econ-omy, which is at odds with the results obtained forother European countries where the available esti-mates point to a non-constant NAIRU. For in-stance, Fabiani and Mestre (2000) present alterna-tive estimates for the euro area NAIRU, that ex-hibit a clear upward trend, in particular, duringthe seventies and the eighties.The first objective of this article is to revisit theNAIRU estimates for the Portuguese economy,evaluating, in particular, the maintenance of a con-stant NAIRU throughout the sample period(1983-2003). In order to address this issue, alterna-tive formulations are used, in particular allowingexplicitly for a time-varying NAIRU specification.Secondly, this article analysis the flexibility ofreal wages to the prevailing economic conditions,which is a traditional argument presented to jus-tify the stability of the Portuguese NAIRU. Itseems important to revisit this stylised fact, giventhe current new exchange rate framework. In fact,the flexibility of real wages might have been re-lated with the sudden unexpected depreciation ep-isodes of the former Portuguese currency — theescudo — that took place in the past and thus itcould have been reduced by the gradual increaseof the exchange rate stability along the integrationprocess in the Economic and Monetary Union.This article is organized as follows: section 2briefly presents single equation methods mostcommonly used to compute the NAIRU estimates;section 3 describes the dataset used in the empiri-cal analysis; section 4 presents the empirical re-sults obtained using the alternative approaches tomeasure the NAIRU; section 5 analyses the flexi-bility of real wages ; finally, section 6 summarizesthe main conclusions." @default.
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- W1552620210 date "2004-01-01" @default.
- W1552620210 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W1552620210 title "Revisiting the NAIRU Estimates for the Portuguese Economy" @default.
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