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• W1554411802 abstract "Over last 20 years or so, volatility of aggregate economic activity has fallen dramatically in most of industrialized world. The timing and nature of decline vary across countries, but phenomenon has been so widespread and persistent that it has earned label: the Great Moderation.A growing body of research has focused on The Great Moderation and its possible explanations, especially as it applies to U.S. experience. The literature documents international dimension of this volatility reduction, but so far little is known about possible causes from a cross-country perspective.This article shows why The Great Moderation has indeed been a common feature of much of industrialized world. Specifically, article focuses on reduction in volatility of GDP growth that occurred in G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) and Australia. Similarities among these countries suggest there may be one or more underlying global causes. Still, differences in experiences of these countries indicate important influence of country-specific factors.The most common explanations for increased output stability include better monetary policy, structural changes in inventory management, and-to put it simply-good luck. Sorting out relative merits of these potential causes has important implications for policymakers. If The Great Moderation happened as a result of improved monetary policy, and to extent that this moderation has been beneficial, then policy should continue to be made in new way. In contrast, if moderation happened because of structural changes in way industrialized economies operate (for example, how inventories of goods and raw materials are organized at various stages of production process), then public policy should encourage such flexibility and innovation. Finally, if good luck played a primary role, then (apart from hoping that it continues) policymakers should recognize that good luck may not last indefinitely-and they should prepare for a turn for worse.To show how widespread The Great Moderation has been, first section of this article describes drop in volatility in major industrialized countries. The second section discusses three most frequently cited explanations for The Great Moderation: improved monetary policy, more sophisticated inventory management techniques, and good luck. The third section uses international evidence to evaluate merits of these potential explanations. The article concludes that, from an international perspective, good luck in form of smaller energy price shocks is not a compelling explanation for widespread moderation of GDP growth volatility. Rather, The Great Moderation is more likely because of improved monetary policy and better inventory management techniques.I. THE NATURE OF THE GREAT MODERATIONThis section reviews evidence of The Great Moderation in United States and shows that a similar moderation also occurred in rest of G-7 countries and in Australia. The magnitude of decline in GDP growth volatility was similar across countries, yet timing differed by more than a decade.Volatility decline in United StatesExtensive evidence has shown that U.S. output growth volatility has moderated dramatically over past two decades. This reduced volatility extends to several sectors of economy, particularly durable goods production (McConnell and Perez-Quiros). Some analysts suggest that increased stability of U.S. economy occurred rather suddenly-most likely in first quarter of 1984 (McConnell and Perez-Quiros; Kim and Nelson). Others argue that volatility probably moderated more gradually, taking place over several quarters or years (Blanchard and Simon).In any case, while methods used to study The Great Moderation differ considerably across studies, underlying message is remarkably consistent. …" @default.
• W1554411802 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1554411802 date "2005-06-22" @default.
• W1554411802 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
• W1554411802 title "What Caused the Great Moderation? Some Cross-Country Evidence" @default.
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