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- W1556757310 abstract "Predictions of asset returns and volatilities are heavily discussed and analyzed in the finance research literature. In this paper, we compare linear and nonlinear predictions for stock- and bond index returns and their covariance matrix. We show in-sample and out-of-sample prediction accuracy as well as their impact on asset allocation results for short-horizon investors. Our data comprises returns from the German DAX stock market index and the REXP bond market index as well as their joint covariance matrix over the period 01/1988 - 12/2007. The comparison of a linear and nonlinear prediction approach is the focus of this study. The results show that while out-of-sample prediction accuracies are weak in terms of statistical significance, asset allocation performances based on linear predictions result in significant Jensen's alpha measures and Sharpe-ratio and are further improved by nonlinear predictions." @default.
- W1556757310 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1556757310 creator A5018474791 @default.
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- W1556757310 date "2012-01-01" @default.
- W1556757310 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W1556757310 title "The Economic Value of Nonlinear Predictions in Asset Allocation" @default.
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- W1556757310 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1600716" @default.
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