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• W1563708008 abstract "In the future, violent conflict fueled by scarce resources may spread beyond the borders of impoverished countries. It is easy for the billion-odd people living in rich countries to forget that the wellbeing of about half the world's population of 6 billion depends on local natural resources. Sixty to 70 percent of the world's poor people live in rural areas, and most depend on agriculture for their main income. A large majority of these people are small-holder farmers, including many who are semisubsistence, which means they survive mainly by eating what they grow. Over 40 percent of people on the planet--some 2.4 billion--use fuelwood, charcoal, straw, or cow dung as their main source of energy; 50 to 60 percent rely on these biomass fuels for at least some of their primary energy needs. Over 1.2 billion people lack access to clean drinking water; many are forced to walk far to get what water they can find. The cropland, forests, and water supplies that underpin the livelihoods of these billions are renewable. Unlike nonrenewable resources such as oil and iron ore, renewables are replenished over time by natural processes. In most cases, if used prudently, they should sustain an adequate standard of living indefinitely. Unfortunately, in many regions where people rely on renewables, they are being depleted or degraded faster than they are being renewed. From Gaza to the Philippines to Honduras, the evidence is stark: aquifers are being overdrawn and salinized, coastal fisheries are disappearing, and steep uplands have been stripped of their forests, leaving their thin soils to erode into the sea. This environmental scarcity helps generate chronic and diffuse sub-national violence--exactly the kind of violence that bedevils conventional military institutions. Around the world, we see conventional armies pinned down and often utterly impotent in the face of interethnic violence or attacks by ragtag bands of lightly armed guerrillas and Insurgents. As yet, environmental scarcity is not a major factor behind most of these conflicts, but we can expect it to become a more important influence in coming decades because of larger populations and higher per capita rates of resource consumption. Growth and Consumption Since 1900, the world's population has increased fourfold. This increase, combined with much higher per capita consumption of materials and energy, has produced huge jumps in global energy consumption, carbon emissions, water use, fish consumption, land degradation, and deforestation. While fertility rates have dropped sharply in recent years in most poor countries, it is premature to declare that the problem of human population growth is behind us. The largest number of girls ever born have yet to reach their reproductive years, which ensures tremendous momentum behind global population growth. Even under the most optimistic projections, the planet's population will expand by almost a third--2 billion people--by 2025. Real economic product per capita is also currently rising by about 1 percent a year. Combined with global population growth, Earth's total economic product is therefore increasing by about 2.3 percent annually. Today's global product of about $30 trillion should exceed $50 trillion in today's dollars by 2025. A large component of this growth will be achieved through yet higher consumption of the planet's natural resources. Already, as geographers R. Kates, B.L. Turner, and W. C. Clark write, Transformed, managed, and utilized ecosystems constitute about half of the ice-free Earth; human-mobilized material and energy flows rival those of nature. [1] Such changes are certain to increase, because of the ever-greater scale and intensity of human economic activity. We will see a decline in the total area of high-quality cropland, along with the widespread loss of remaining virgin forests. We will also see continued degradation and depletion of rivers, aquifers, and other water resources and the further decline of wild fisheries. …" @default.
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• W1563708008 date "2000-03-22" @default.
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• W1563708008 title "Scarcity and Conflict" @default.
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