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• W1566850147 abstract "It has been good sport over the last twenty years to look back at the group of eminent library forecasts gathered together for publication in 1939 under the stimulat ing leadership of Emily Miller Danton. The Library of Tomorrow included as forecast ers the great eminences of librarianship of that time: Carl Milam, Carleton Joeckel, Harry Miller Lydenberg, Judson T. Jen nings, Carl B. Roden, Charles E. Rush, Herbert Putnam, librarians who knew the past and who had created librarianship as it was in 1939. A number of their pro jections have come to pass. Mildred Batchelder, writing from the context of school libraries almost univer sally staffed by single librarians(!), fore cast school library systems, centralized technical services, close teacher-librarian collaboration on curriculum, and coopera tion with public libraries and other types of libraries in the community. A pretty good forecast for the 1970s! Jennings had foreseen public library systems with fund ing equally shared between local and state-federal sources. Robert Downs pre dicted extensive use of microfilm, a form just making its appearance in the late 1930s. Carleton Joeckel foresaw federal government leadership, which was realized only in 1956. It was Russell Munn, however, then the librarian of the National Youth Adminis tration Library in Quoddy Village, Maine, who?from our hindsight?really hit the target: Munn forecast for 1965 that there would be small libraries set up in com munity centers, next door to the post office and across from the grocery store duplicating readable books and staffed for personal service. How did he know? Had he some prescience that Lyndon Johnson would, by quirks of fate, seek his immortality through establishment of the Great Society program that very year, or that the neglected would force attention to themselves by taking over the central cities? No. Munn's forecast was based on the recent emergence of a new model of public library service developed within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) from which stemmed so much innovation and leadership in librarianship. Munn's fore cast was based on John Cancellor's de tailed study of the implications of TVA li brary service for public librarianship in general. The 1939 forecasts, then, were based on the availability of new technology, on re search into new models in library service, on basic concepts that needed only funds and skills to show their worth, and on an understanding of essential needs. Forecasting does not pretend to predict the future; nor is it a game of guessing what might happen. Forecasting is a pre cise discipline of examining alternatives and making choices that will affect the fu ture. Professional futurists have elaborate mathematical models; the Club of Rome has developed forecasts for world futures that lead us to pessimistic outcomes with a precision of calculation that is difficult to" @default.
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• W1566850147 date "1979-01-01" @default.
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• W1566850147 title "Adult Services in the Third Millennium." @default.
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