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• W1567091829 abstract "he Tenth District economy grew at a moderate pace during 1996. The district economy expanded vigorously in early 1996 but slowed as the year progressed. Tight labor markets in many parts of the region appeared to limit job growth, particularly in the large trade and services sectors. A slumping cattle industry also curbed overall growth in parts of the district. Nonetheless, construction continued to post healthy gains, energy activity improved somewhat, and manufacturing across the region remained stable. Economic performance diverged across the seven district states. The New Mexico economy surged again due to strong growth in construction, services, and manufacturing. Growth in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas was at or near the district average, while growth in Colorado, Missouri, and Wyoming fell below the district average. In 1997, the district economy will probably continue to grow moderately, about equal to the 1996 pace. Tight labor markets will continue to constrain growth in many parts of the district. District manufacturing will likely remain stable, while trade and services continue to expand at a more sustainable, moderate pace than in previous years. Construction activity may moderate, but the farm economy is expected to improve somewhat, reflecting relatively strong prices and an improving outlook for the cattle industry. This article reviews the district's economic performance in 1996 and explores the outlook for 1997. The first section compares the overall performance of the district and the nation in 1996. The second section focuses on the recent performance and outlook for the district's key industries. The third section surveys growth across district states in 1996 and discusses each state's outlook for the year ahead. I. THE DISTRICT ECONOMY SLOWS IN 1996 Growth in the district economy slowed to a moderate pace in 1996 from the robust pace set in 1995.' Most of the growth, however, occurred early in the year, with economic activity quickly leveling off. The slowing caused the district economy to lag behind the nation in 1996, after leading the nation in 1995. Employment growth, one broad measure of economic performance, provides evidence of a slowing district economy. Nonfarm employment in the district grew 1.5 percent in 1996, much slower than in 1995 (Chart 1).2 In the nation, employment grew 2.3 percent. Akey reason for the slower employment growth appears to be tight labor markets across the district. The civilian unemployment rate in the district averaged only 4.2 percent during the first three quarters, well below the nation's average of 5.4 percent. In many parts of the district, the tight labor markets constrained employers' abilities to hire additional workers during the year. As a result, employment growth may be a somewhat less reliable indicator of the underlying strength of the district economy than in past years. Employment growth slowed in all district states in 1996 (Chart 2). New Mexico and Oklahoma job growth remained strong, only slightly off the previous year's pace. Job growth was moderate in most other states, with the degree of slowing varying from state to state. For example, job growth slowed sharply in Colorado and Kansas and only modestly in Nebraska and Missouri. Employment declined in Wyoming in 1996, after posting moderate gains in 1995. Real personal income growth, another broad measure of economic performance, also suggests the district economy slowed in 1996. Growth in real nonfarm personal income fell to 2.9 percent from 4.2 percent in 1995 (Chart 3).3 As a result, district income growth matched income growth in the nation. Income growth fell in nearly all district states in 1996 (Chart 4). Only in Oklahoma did growth in real nonfarm personal income pick up slightly. In Wyoming, income declined, reflecting the slippage in employment in the state. II. REVIEW AND OUTLOOK BY SECTOR Growth in the district economy, while moderate, was broad-based in 1996, with most industries contributing to the region's gains in jobs and income. …" @default.
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• W1567091829 date "1997-01-01" @default.
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• W1567091829 title "Tenth District Economic Developments" @default.
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