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- W1567962912 abstract "This article is based on a research report entiltled: Population Forecasting: short-term and long-term model carried out as a co-production of the Netherlands National Program for Demographic Research and the Catholic University of Tilburg (The Netherlands). The theoretical framework analyses and research results are presented. Conventional demographic forecasting does not comprise any term-specific methods: short-term (1-5 years) medium term (5-15 years) and long-term (15 years and longer) forecasting is carried out by means of the same model. Hypotheses which are substituted into a population model lead to a population forecast. A specific method for short-term population forecasts is described and results on the demographic variables of fertility marriage diviorce and external migration are tested. 3 hypotheses are formulated: 1) the choice between a longitudinal or periodical concept of population dynamics should be made on the grounds of the numerical dominance of either the structural or conjectural change components in the total of occurring demographic developments; 2) if there are plausible grounds for expecting that on a short-term conjectural change factors will have a more important effect on demographic processes than structural change factors an open forecasting model should be used; and 3) structural change in the population system such as has taken place in recent decades in the mjaority of western countries have led to a dominant conjecture-sensitivity in the near future. The forecasting model is outlined by explaining how fertility is forecast using variables of modernization sensitivity economic and demographic factors. The intensity of marriage is expressed as a total rate being the sum of the age-specific marriage rates; the intensity of divorce is expressed as a total rate (the sum of the age-specific divorce rates). The statistical method chosen in this project to formalize the explanatory model makes fairly high demands of the quantity and the quality of the statistical data to be used. The results show promise that closer study of certain topics will ultimately lead to an improvement of the accuracy of short-term forecasts." @default.
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- W1567962912 title "A short-term population forecasting model" @default.
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