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- W1569138607 abstract "In a closed form, we investigate why an expansionary policy rises beyond the equilibrium, and alters its positive impact into a negative one upon output growth, employment, and price inflation. Thus, without control, real business cycles arise. First, we find that such a generalized prevailing relationship leads to a minmax solution and implies a symmetric demand and supply curves. Monetarists and Keynesians find only asymmetric positive or negative curves. Second, our main contribution is to detect the sign of the first-order and the second-order coefficients, and predict the optimal policy and the non-zero equilibrium with a minimum shrinking variance for all horizons. Third, using dynamic quadratic regression without iterations, this paper proves that with a super-convergence probability close to one, an incentive aggressive policy can steer stochastic output growth. The heteroschedasticity of shocks is reduced into Brownian motions. The first-order solution can be misleading. As sensitivity tests, the optimum in real interest rate policy is found invariant and consistent across time and spaces. When the observations converge towards the equilibrium and policies, their volatility decreases. The optimal policy is discretionary and evolutionary, because the disturbances are not zero. The data of Taiwan, United States, and Argentina over different time periods are estimated. The optimal policies are verified through sensitivity tests. (JEL: C43; D6; D9; H2, G1)." @default.
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- W1569138607 date "2004-09-17" @default.
- W1569138607 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1569138607 title "A Generalized Theory of Monetary and Macroeconomics" @default.
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