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- W1569594824 abstract "Autocracies with multiparty elections have spread across the globe, but we know little about what predicts transitions to electoral authoritarianism (EA). To fill this gap, I use multinomial logit models to simultaneously predict transitions to EA and democracy from non-electoral autocracy between 1946 and 2007. Because autocrats usually retain power under EA, I argue that EA transitions follow from a strategic calculus that balances domestic and international incentives to hold elections against the costs of controlling them. As a result, socioeconomic factors that make voters easier to buy off, such as low average income and high inequality, predict EA adoption. In contrast, autocrats lack significant power under democracy, so democratization is mainly predicted by regime weakness and not socioeconomic conditions. Lastly, I find parallel regional diffusion effects: Democratic neighbors predict democratization and EA neighbors predict EA transition." @default.
- W1569594824 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1569594824 creator A5018456547 @default.
- W1569594824 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W1569594824 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1569594824 title "The Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism and Democracy" @default.
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