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• W1569598847 abstract "Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide foodsecurity in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims toidentify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekinregion, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina.Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, givenclimate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be lessthan 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but theability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains islimited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent andsecondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat.Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has beendeveloped by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributingto the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds.The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regionallevel. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependentbehavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. Whenan economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts accordingto the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory.In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance withrelationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by othercrops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered:• Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcaneand the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane• Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production• Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane.Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to considerclimate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased realeconomic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively." @default.
• W1569598847 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1569598847 date "2012-06-01" @default.
• W1569598847 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1569598847 title "Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry" @default.
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