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• W1570695188 abstract "Delphi studies seem to be making a resurgence in popularity. Two separate Delphi studies were conducted by the authors, and although the two studies were strategically similar to other Delphi research efforts, the authors ' Delphi studies added new dimensions to Delphi methodology. According to the research literature, Jones (1994) was the first to send and receive Delphi questionnaires totally by facsimile (fax) machine, and Eggers (1994) was the first to conduct a Delphi using multiple distribution methods of electronic mail (e-mail), fa_, and mail delivered by the US Postal Service. In addition to giving an overview of the history of the Delphi methodology and a summary of the modified Delphi methodology used in the two research studies, the authors provide information about electronic communication in Delphi studies. .41so provided are suggestions that can be adapted to a Delphi study that utilizes any form of communication between researcher and subjects. Finally, suggestions are presented to assist other researchers who may desire to conduct a Delphi study. With the renewed interest in qualitative methodology, Delphi studies are experiencing a resurgence in popularity. This article seeks to update the methodology and its application to current educational research. First, for those individuals who may be unfamiliar with the Delphi technique, information is provided about the methodology and its use in education. This is followed by an example of the Delphi methodology as carried out in studies conducted by the authors. Finally, administrative suggestions are presented to help inexperienced researchers who may want to conduct a Delphi study. Delphi Method of Research STRENGTHS OF THE METHODOLOGY The Delphi technique is a carefully designed program of sequential individual interrogations (best conducted by questionnaires) interspersed with information and opinion feedback derived by computed consensus from earlier parts of the program (Helmer & Rescher, 1969). It was deeloped by Dalkey and Helmer at the Rand Corporation, to provide information for decision making in areas where exact data were required, but unavailable (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). A series of experiments conducted by Dalkey discovered that when anonymous and controlled feedback was provided to members of a decision making group, more accurate decisions were produced than when such groups reached decisions by face to face discussions (Dalkey, 1969). The strength of expert opinion when used in a Delphi study was summed up by Weaver (1971) as follows: In effect, they [Delphi studies] operate on the principle that several heads are better than one in making subjective conjectures about the future, and that experts, within a controlled intuitive process, will make conjectures based upon rational judgment and shared information rather than merely guessing, and will separate hope from likelihood in the process (p. 269) Predictions made by groups are more likely to be correct than predictions made by the same individuals working alone (Kaplan et al, 1950) and Delphi methodology makes the collection of from' geographically dispersed experts possible (Delberg et al, 1975). This methodology also produces more accurate group estimates than do faceto-face discussions (Riggs, 1983) and reduces ... the influence of certain psychological factors, such as specious persuasion, the unwillingness to abandon publicly expressed opinion, and the bandwagon effect of majority opinions (Helmer & Rescher, 1969. p. 47). These research findings support the use of the Delphi technique as a tool for the collection of information and expert opinion. DEFINING EXPERTS From its beginnings, the Delphi technique has been modified in ways that were appropriate for a particular research study. Nevertheless, the attractiveness of this research technique may be that it provides a vehicle for collecting data that other research methods do not allow since it is: a method for structuring the collective judgments of a group in order to deal with a complex problem. …" @default.
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• W1570695188 title "Practical Considerations for Conducting Delphi Studies: The Oracle Enters a New Age" @default.
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