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- W1570753166 abstract "Although the economy of each of the six southeastern U.S. states has unique and defining characteristics, these states’ business cycles also tend to move together as if responding to some common, underlying factor. Currently, no single economic indicator exists for the economy of the Sixth Federal Reserve District as a whole, which encompasses the entire states of Georgia, Florida, and Alabama and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. 1 Rather, analyses of each southeastern state’s economy are typically performed individually and then aggregated into a weighted average index. An indicator that captured the overall trend of the region’s economy using information from all six states would aid in understanding the unique features of the region’s business cycle. These features, when compared to those of the nation or other Federal Reserve districts, could assist in identifying crucial differences and similarities used to develop more accurate forecasts and in turn support monetary policy formulation. This article outlines and estimates a model that provides such an indicator. We model economic activity in the Sixth District as being driven by an unobserved common factor. Economic activity is measured by a large set of time series of employment, construction, earnings, and sales tax revenues. Disaggregated information for each state is incorporated in a large model from which the common component is derived. A thorough understanding of the dynamics behind this common factor will enable academics, policymakers, and businesspeople to make a better diagnosis of the condition of the region’s economy. In addition, having one comprehensive measure of economic activity for the Sixth District will not only allow for a simplified and faster interpretation of several (sometimes contradicting) economic signals but will also make comparisons with other Federal Reserve district economies easier. The study also seeks to compare its latent common factor model with the current practice of averaging individual states’ coincident indicators. Overall we find that our indicator provides a more reasonable assessment of large idiosyncratic" @default.
- W1570753166 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1570753166 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W1570753166 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W1570753166 title "When More Is Better: Assessing the Southeastern Economy with Lots of Data" @default.
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