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• W1582010909 abstract "two models: a standard one-sector model and a two-sector model with differential technological change across sectors. They derive the steadystate predictions in each case and confront the theoretical predictions about capital deepening— defined as the contribution of the increase in capital per worker to output—with the data. They conclude that the two-sector model, which allows for a change in the price of capital, outperforms the simple one-sector model. At this level of abstraction, it is not easy to pick a winner. Basu and Fernald base their preference for the two-sector model on two different arguments. First, they show that in the data the relative price of capital has decreased substantially, which is inconsistent with the one-sector model. Second, they highlight the ability of the two-sector model to account for the low contribution of capital in the period of productivity slowdown. Basu and Fernald’s first argument—the change in the price of capital—is not completely persuasive. There is no discussion that capital has become cheaper, but this does not automatically imply that this fact is of crucial importance. Of necessity, models are abstractions of reality and, by their very nature, will miss some dimension of the data. To be precise, models that account for everything are so complex that they cannot be useful. Thus, adding a sector—which can only improve the ability of the model—cannot determine a winner. It is easy enough to find other B asu and Fernald (2009) describe and evaluate alternative theoretical models of potential output to provide a frame of reference for policy analysis. They also discuss what is (and what is not) known about potential output and illustrate their approach by estimating a two-sector model with price rigidities. I find the overall theme—that models ought to be used to guide policy choices—important and a welcome reminder of the value of using a consistent framework for policy evaluation. I wholeheartedly agree with the approach. When it comes to specifics, they conclude that to capture some essential features of the U.S. economy, the standard one-sector model should be abandoned in favor of a two-sector model with differential technological change. Here, I am not totally convinced by their arguments. The second major point that they argue—and I fully agree with them here—is that any useful notion of potential output cannot be assumed to be properly described by a smooth trend, and it is likely to fluctuate even in the short run. As before, their choice of model and the empirical strategy they use are subject to debate." @default.
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• W1582010909 date "2009-01-01" @default.
• W1582010909 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1582010909 title "Commentary on What do we know (and not know) about potential output" @default.
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